Scottsdale (AZ) - Although Microsoft wants consumers to believe that Vista has reinvigorated the computer market, research firm In-Stat says it really has no impact at all.
"System sales that had been muted waiting for systems pre-loaded with Vista rather than XP are expected to work through sales channels in the next two quarters," said In-Stat analyst Ian Lao. "However, these sales represent an offset from last year rather than actual new demand creation."
In other words, the long-term expectations have not changed in the wake of Vista’s launch. In-Stat predicts 300 million PCs to be sold in 2009, the same number it predicted when Windows XP was still the most recent OS.
Microsoft announced at this month’s WinHEC keynote that over 40 million copies of Vista had already been sold, but skeptics have questioned that number, and it’s unclear how many of those were pre-installed on new computers and how many of the upper tier versions of the OS were sold.
In-Stat told TG Daily that while it does not question Microsoft’s sales figures, it does not believe in its assertions that Vista will cause any kind of "unexpected surge" in PC purchasing.
In-Stat says the only real winner from the release of Vista is going to be memory manufacturers, which it says are likely to see around a 20% year-to-year revenue increase through the end of the decade.