The threat of Sony, real or imagined, is forcing Intel to swallow up more of the PC universe in order to fuel growth, and keep its fabs pumping new silicon. Of course, Intel is also becoming more of a big iron company like IBM, too, especially in the way it is moving into Web businesses, and servers. Nevertheless, the company still has to sell complexity in the form of bigger and faster chips, and that will eventually mean the graphics pie is going to shrink for the rest of the industry. Not disappear, but shrink. As a result, I am sure we will see a lot more aggressive activity in the market in the next eighteen months, which means hype, spin doctoring, and disappointment all round. This really is do or die for all but maybe 3 or 4 companies. I don't think there is room for any more than that in the performance and higher end graphics business.

Therefore, the recent spate of financials shouldn't be taken to heart as indications of anything more than reality catching up with the graphics industry punditry business. I've seen it on CNET, The Motley Fool, which I personally blame for most of the misconceptions about 3D graphics companies, and almost all the gaming sites out there. I am including myself in all of this. The reality is that all pundits are missing the big picture as they focus on Nvidia versus 3dfx. It's just headline fodder. There are fundamental limitations in the PC architecture that everyone knows about, and may come to be a millstone around the neck of the PC graphics industry if Sony's PlayStation II makes the impact expected. So, beware of Intel, and know that the graphics business is shrinking for all but 3 or 4 companies. Beyond that, I don't know if either Intel or Microsoft will have the courage to drastically alter the PC, at least for the consumer market. The corporate market will be PC bound for a good many years to come. Therefore, this may well be the autumn of an architecture that has served consumers well, but just ain't good enough for the new digital media rich millennium.

I think there was something for everyone in this article: a little punditry, a little arrogance, a little doom, and a little gloom.