First-quarter shipments of PCs should grow 4.8 percent over the same period last year, and 7.9 percent over the course of the year, according to research firm Gartner Dataquest Inc.

In a report issued this week, the San Jose, Calif., company said it expects 33.2 million PCs to ship in the first quarter and 138.7 million computers to ship in 2003.

There are a number of hurdles that need to be overcome, including the possible war with Iraq, the sluggish economy and the lack of a killer application to really jump-start the industry, according to the firm.

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