Chicago (IL) - Gordon Moore predicted the transistor count in integrated circuits to double every 18 to 24 months in 1965. The prediction has become "Moore’s Law" and the single most important guideline for global semiconductor research and development. With the 40th anniversary celebrated next week, Moore today said the forecast likely will last another "10 to 20 years".
During a phone conference with international journalists which Moore attended from Hawaii, he explained Moore’s Law will apply to the industry until it reaches "fundamental" barriers. "Something like this cannot continue forever. The dimensions are small enough now that we’re approaching the size of atoms and that’s a fundamental block."
Moore believes his prediction will apply another 10 to 20 years. Researchers would be able to bring the next two to three technology generation to market using current processes. According to Moore, there will be an opportunity to integrate "billions of transistors" on a chip to enable new developments and products. "Even then we’ll be able to make bigger chips and there’ll be a host of other innovations that will boost performance," he said.
Moore however does not believe that nanotechnology will replace silicon in the foreseeable time. "More than $100 billion have been spent on silicon technologies. To replace it, you will need a very mature technology." Instead of nanotechnology, he said current electronics are likely to march into other areas such as DNA chips.
Moore also mentioned in his 1965 paper that the advancement of chips will become the foundation for home computers - however he hesitated to take credit for this prediction : "The first time I discussed a home computer at Intel the only reason we could think of to use one was for a housewife to store recipes on."
The original publication Moore’s can be downloaded here .