Opinion: Can You Blame the PC Crash on the iPad?
Gartner updated its PC shipment forecast today. There is no better way of describing the new estimate than calling it catastrophic for the PC industry.
Gartner expects just 3.8 percent growth for 2011, which is down from 10.5 percent last spring, down from 15.9 percent in November 2010 and down from 18.1 percent in early 2010. If that trend continues, the PC industry should consider itself lucky if there is any growth at all this year – especially if we remember that Gartner overestimated every single PC shipment forecast in 2010 and was even 0.5 points off from the actual result at the end of November 2010 (a 14.3 percent forecast versus a 13.8 percent actual 2010 result that was published in early 2011).
You may question the value of the word "forecast." If Gartner's original January 2010 forecast of 445 million units for 2011 has shrunk by a staggering 93 million units, or a stunning 26 percent to only 352 million, you can only hope that the reasonable mind has learned that a business shouldn’t be built on any IT forecast that predicts a scenario that extends further than three months. I will leave that topic for another article and will focus instead on some explanations about why the PC industry is virtually going down in flames. Some may argue that this is an exaggeration, as PC makers are still selling gazillions of PCs, but let's agree that the PC market has been stuck in a ditch for a while.
Gartner's press release blames the downturn, in part, on growing economic concerns and the fact that consumers aren't willing to spend money as readily as they did prior to the current recession. The other part is based on an argument that we have been hearing for some time: changing user behavior, lacking a compelling argument to buy a PC, and a trend that people aren't replacing their PC as frequently as they were. Let's just call this problem by its name: iPad.
Think about this for a moment: Can the iPad really be blamed for the current issues in the PC industry? Sure, it's a big hit and it controls the mindshare and excitement in computing these days, but does Apple really have the power to bring an entire industry down to its knees? I doubt it. The iPad has not killed PC growth by itself. My claim: The (off-the-shelf) PC has become incredibly boring. Look at the PC lineup in your local Best Buy or Walmart and I rest my case. There is absolutely no innovation left in the common PC that would convince you to go out today and buy a new one – a PC that would easily convince you to wait in line, spend $1,000 or so, and then hurry home to try it out.
While there are PC manufacturers that complain about low margins and others that simply try to get rid of an amazing business (HP, anyone?), there is Apple, which is outgrowing the PC market quarter after quarter with a tight and attractive product line. Apple isn't just growing because it is Apple and because it understands product marketing better than any other IT company on this planet. Apple is outgrowing the market because it is able to design and build desirable PCs for relatively affordable prices. The closest PC manufacturer that has approached Apple's model was VoodooPC when it was integrated into HP. Unfortunately, HP strangled it for reasons I don't quite understand.
Looking back at the history of the PC, I would argue that the PC has not changed much in 30 years. The usage model today is the same as it was with the IBM PC 5150 in 1981. The notebook today may look different, have prettier colors and come in a thin form factor, but the idea is the same as it was with the first true notebook, the Compaq LTE from 1984 or the first sub-notebook, the Apple Powerbook 100 from 1989. In notebooks, for example, there's still the LCD screen, there's still a keyboard, and the screen on the keyboard is still folded to pack it up. Apple is quite obviously thinking about the form factor, and it is Apple that is leading trends such as the Macbook Air or even the iPad, which could be viewed as a radical redesign of the compact notebook. The last innovation from PC manufacturers I can remember was the netbook, which was essentially killed by lack of innovation. What we see lately is a trend that is established by Apple and an entire industry that is frantically trying to copy Apple, whether that is the Macbook Air (Ultrabook), the smartphone or the tablet. This may sound harsh, but I don't believe that the PC industry can return to its former glory when it is following Apple.
You may not have guessed it, but I am actually very passionate about the PC industry and its accomplishments over the past three decades. The better half of the day I spend talking to hardware and software makers, and I find it somewhat surprising that there is the general idea that there really is no iPad problem and no economy problem. It seems that many share the view that the problem is innovation and a lack thereof. What would it take for you to wait in line for a PC? What are the characteristics of a device that you find truly desirable in a PC? How important is the CPU, the GPU and the hard drive? How important are usage models and how important is the evolution of the keyboard, for example? Are these (example) questions we should ask before we paint last year's PC in a new color this year? Probably.
I don't believe that the iPad is the cause of squashing growth in the PC market, other than the fact that it is a fresh way to interact with a computing device. Just like Apple, PC manufacturers will have to innovate to be successful. If Gartner's latest forecast doesn't communicate that there is a need for innovation, then I don't know what does.
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Probably the need of PC so far is not as strong as few years ago it was.
I guess the I-Pad is very comfortable for the generation of people who were born before the first PC was invented: they find it more relaxing and fun, more enjoyable. So it's understandable why there are so many Ipad and so little growth in the PC sell.
In addiction, economy is not helping at all- and for sure the PC market is not the most damaged by the crysis.
Trends come and go and tablets feel like a "phase" that will calm down after the market becomes far too saturated with them.
I think that PCs can be fun for anyone if they were to take time to build one of their own and relish in their creation for several years, you can't do that with an Apple product.
>desirable PCs for relatively affordable prices
Can I have whatever you are smoking? I wouldn't use the word affordable when you can source something more powerful for either the same price or far cheaper.
Asking what would make me stand in line for a £1000 PC is irrelevant as i also would not stand in line to buy an iPad. I would also guess that people reading this site would not be so fanatical about getting a product.
Maybe the industry is just too greedy; since when is continued growth a crash?
>I think that PCs can be fun for anyone if they were to take time to build one of their own and relish in their creation for several years, you can't do that with an Apple product.
And that's a tiny fraction of the market.
And that's a tiny fraction of the market.
It's not as small as you might think. It's getting to a point where a lot of large online computer shops are making more money from selling parts for builds than they are pre-build computers.
The article has some point on the lack of innovation and every manufacturer is busy trying to copy Apple instead of looking forward. But the question is, what makes that lack of innovation more important now then the other 30 years? All this time we had software pushing for more and more powerful hardware. Now it seems we've come to a stagnant need for hardware.
*Have more RAM then I can ever need in my computer until the next software innovation
*by the trends there is going to be lower memory footprint OSes,
*MS Office and the likes have moved to cloud.
*PC Games lowered their tier to consoles level
*I check my mail on my smartphone.
I'm still trying to justify to myself why I really needed to upgrade my last rig from my core2 to the i5 2500K that I don't even bother overclocking cause it doesn't feel different.
Granted there's much difference in transcoding time, there's photoshop, 3d studio and compiling.
Transcoding arguably will be irrelevant in time, everything that uses it is going web based or cloud anyway and that's not even mentioning when I need to transcode anything I don't sit and wait for it to finish, just like when compiling anything that takes enough time to make the upgrade worth it. So what now?
...loads of crap...
Just because you don't use your computer fully, doesn't mean the whole market doesn't need more and more powerful machines.
imo the problem is more than just lack of innovation, and more than just marketing. 5 or so years ago Microsoft came out with Windows XP Tablet Edition - a pretty innovative idea that ran on some pretty neat convertible laptops, and offered stylus input, handwriting recognition etc.
It didn't do well. Partly due to marketing into corporates only, partly due to high cost, and partly due to lack of direct need. I am sure there are more partly's to add.
Microsoft also showcased slate PCs well before the iPad, but where this fell completely flat Apple has been a tearaway success mainly due to the consumerisation of their devices. They are extremely simple and intuitive to use, and provide a very slick experience. Windows 7 doesn't work great on slates without a lot of customisation, and even then the mouse pointer hotspot is a pixel wide; there is no aggregation for human fingers which cover a huge number of pixels.
The interesting thing is whether Apple has driven the consumerisation of IT through the iPad (obviously not the only device that is affected) or whether it has been a major beneficiary of the trend.
The article has some point on the lack of innovation and every manufacturer is busy trying to copy Apple instead of looking forward. But the question is, what makes that lack of innovation more important now then the other 30 years? All this time we had software pushing for more and more powerful hardware. Now it seems we've come to a stagnant need for hardware. *Have more RAM then I can ever need in my computer until the next software innovation*by the trends there is going to be lower memory footprint OSes, *MS Office and the likes have moved to cloud.*PC Games lowered their tier to consoles level*I check my mail on my smartphone.I'm still trying to justify to myself why I really needed to upgrade my last rig from my core2 to the i5 2500K that I don't even bother overclocking cause it doesn't feel different.Granted there's much difference in transcoding time, there's photoshop, 3d studio and compiling.Transcoding arguably will be irrelevant in time, everything that uses it is going web based or cloud anyway and that's not even mentioning when I need to transcode anything I don't sit and wait for it to finish, just like when compiling anything that takes enough time to make the upgrade worth it. So what now?
I'd be more inclined to say at the moment that there isn't really a lack of innovation in the Hardware market, There has never really been any "innovation" required for hardware, Its just a case of bring out the next edition and hope it can handle the software available properly or at least better than the competition.
The problem at the moment is a lack of innovation in the software department, Instead they have been flogging off generally BAD ideas as good innovation, For example 3D, Kinect type devices, etc, All things that are not really such good ideas in the market they are being used in.
I'm the sort of person to upgrade EVERYTHING to Beta versions as soon as soon as they are available or even before they are widely available where I can get my hands for on them for Programs and Operating Systems alike but with the way Windows 8 is shaping up I may well stay with Windows 7.
Software is becoming more and more simplistic for what I'd call the simple minded and less customizable for those of us who don't like it that way.
We have always been told what to like but its happening now more so than ever.
That's what I meant. Innovation is not required for the PC market. If it comes as a bonus we will be very thankful. What made it all this time worth upgrading is software that pushed for more powerful hardware. Some people I built P4s to they're still using it (have to check them every now and then because of some toolbars and other hogs they accidentally add) never mind core2 or phenom. Those software examples I pointed are hardly mainstream.
So let me get this straight, 3.8% growth is a crash? Also percentages are misleading on this, how about some actual figures? 3.8 percent on top of what? A million, billion units sold? This artical is overly dramatic and ridicules.
There are a number of factors at play that are taking time away from the PC:
1. The rise of the smartphone and the (percieved) need for these devices to maintain a social presence
2. The rise of wireless as a viable option, whether it be WiFi or 3g
3. The fact that more portable devices (eg Pads) now exist. No one uses a furnace to toast bread, they use toasters. So why use a PC to check email and browse the web?
4. The re-popularisation of simple games that you don't have to be an expert or devote weeks to playing. The Wii proved that there was a market for this, and the market is massive compared to the 'dedicated' gamer market, simply because dedicated gamers are a niche, while casuals is 'everyone else'
5. The fact that many of the innovations in software/social networking are lightweight and don't require a pc. I still use a Core Duo 1.6 with 2Gb running Ubuntu which is the computer my old workplace was throwing out 2.5 years ago (it's about 5 years old). At home we use a Pentium M1.6 with 1.2Gb on the same OS. I can't watch HD movies, but I can do everything else we've ever tried on it. With news that Windows 7 and now 8 will use even less resources, the upgrade cycle has blown out, along with the fact that it's less relevant due to the diversity in available devices
6. There is no killer app, anywhere. Probably won't be until robotics or AI become alot better, which need better software (as anyone who read 'After the Software Wars' (Curtis) would have known. This could also be put down to the fact that historically margins in this industry have been huge, and now that they aren't any longer you have companies like HP dumping profitable business because they aren't pulling in 80% profits anymore and aren't worth running (at least they think). Further down the chain board manufacturers either won't take the risks to spend time on R&D to build the next best thing since sliced bread, or can't back themselves to lead an industry as Apple has done time and again since the first iPod. But this has always been this way.
My point is, until we build a robot that looks like Charlize Theron and gives blow jobs, I don't think direction the x86 processor has been going will affect the mainstream