IDF Recap: Wind of change at Intel

San Francisco (CA) - If you have been following our news coverage and conference summary on the Intel Developer Forum during last, you know by now that Intel announced at least two dozen new products, detailed its long awaited dual-core strategy and pushes the IT industry quickly towards 64 bit computing. But that is only half the story.

This year’s Spring IDF left us thinking more than ever before what the conference as a whole was really about. Why did Intel provide so much information and an unusually detailed view up to five year’s into the future ? We already brought up the thought that it could have been a strategy of distraction to paint an image of a complete product line that in fact does not exist. Or has AMD finally woken up the dinosaur who now tries to crush its competition in despair ? Are we simply heading just into a long overdue wave of innovation that is necessary to save the future of Moore’s Law ? And what does all of that mean for the user ?

On the surface, Intel’s message is clear. First, developers were told not to waste any more time programming 32 bit applications. Its time for 64 bit now. Second, single-core processors will not go away for the next two years or so, but will rapidly drop down into the segment of entry-level computing - to do basic, everyday tasks. Already by the end of the year, mainstream computing will mean dual-core computing. Third, it’s not about just the processor anymore, but a platform instead. Just as most consumers you don’t buy a car based simply on its horsepower or torque, it is very likely that plain processor speed will be just one of many more decision factors for or against a processor in the near future : Features such as manageability, networking, broadband, virtualization and intelligent clock speed stepping among others will become increasingly important.

All in all, there is lots of dramatic and fast-paced change going on in Intel’s product strategies. If a company, that dominates roughly 80 percent of worldwide microprocessor sales, makes its way into such a change it certainly carries risks, but it is very likely that these changes will impact every single computer user on this planet. Along with these changes in product strategies, Intel recently changed its operations as well and with Barrett’s retirement as CEO later this year, marketing and business know-how will dominate Intel’s top management. For example, future CEO Paul Otellini has an economics degree ; Sean Maloney, head of the Mobility Group spent of his time at Intel in creating marketing strategies ; Pat Gelsinger, former CTO and now in charge of the Digital Enterprise Group, is virtually the only engineer left in Intel’s first row of decision makers in product-related business groups and we leave manufacturing out of the picture. Barrett by the way said during IDF that he did not intend to leave the company but limit this time to Intel’s board of directors and education topics.

So, what does all that change at Intel mean for the user ? Frankly, in the near term probably not much. Since we did not have products in our hands but were just watching demos, its too early too say how useful and dramatic Intel’s new technologie already are. However, what we know is that users who often upgrade their systems are still best served with either an AMD’s FX processor or a Pentium Extreme Edition. Both AMD and Intel confirmed that dual-cores are not fast enough in most usage scenarios to surpass the single-core performance this year. This is the case especially for gaming and also certain multimedia applications such as Adobe Premiere, as several demos at IDF proved.

For users, who consider their PC as an investment at least for two or more years, a dual-core chip is the way to go, as more and more applications will take advantage of multithreading and outpace their single-core counterparts over time. Gamers will not see any immediate advantages of dual-core processing besides the outlook that only dual-core systems will be able to improve features such as artificial intelligence of characters in the near future.

Intel’s change is likely to also affect its competition, primarily AMD. Before IDF, we were certain that AMD is at least on par with Intel’s chip development, but now we are not so sure anymore. Intel revealed its plans and a complete product line for the next years. We were somewhat surprised that AMD came a bit empty-handed to its traditional journalist-briefing during the IDF. The dual-core briefing brought virtually no new information and the platform strategy boiled down to AMD’s belief in open standards. Overall, AMD’s dual-core approach at this time appears to be far less comprehensive than Intel’s all-or-nothing bet. Also, Intel has basically caught up on 64 bit, even if AMD claims it still has an edge in performance.

Its too early too judge whether AMD or Intel has the right strategy and whether AMD has lost its technology advantage. The ball however is AMD’s field now and there is no doubt that AMD has to react in one way or the other to Intel’s IDF announcements soon. Also certain is the fact that PCs of the near future will bring a new level of multitasking that enables any kind of PC to do more at the same time. This fact alone is exciting enough keep the geeks inside of us looking forward to the results of Intel’s and the industry’s change.