Hard Drive Prices to Remain Inflated Throughout 2012
In Q4 2011, HDD shipments dropped by 26 percent over the same period in the previous year. Shipments will by 13 percent in Q1 and 5 percent in Q2 on an annual basis, IHS believes. In Q3, the market will stabilize and grow by 2 percent and bounce back with 49 percent in the fourth quarter of this year. Sequentially, HDD shipments are predicted to climb 14 percent in Q1, 11 percent in Q3 and 4 percent in Q4.
“The recovery of global HDD manufacturing has begun and will continue during each quarter of 2012,” noted Fang Zhang, storage analyst for IHS. “However, the recovery will be prolonged for at least two more quarters, as supply constraints keep unit shipments from climbing on an annual basis until third quarter." The shortage will translate to continued inflated prices throughout 2012, the firm said.
HDD makers and component suppliers have resumed only partial production in Thailand and have shifted some of their manufacturing to other countries to alleviate the impact of the supply shortage. According to IHS, Western Digital has been the HDD manufacturer most impacted by the floods and is not expected to return to full production until September.
IHS said that the Thailand flood has caused the global average selling price (ASP) for HDDs to jump by 28 percent in Q4 2011. Prices are forecast to decline by 3 percent in Q1 and by 9 percent in Q2. “Prices will remain high for a number of reasons, including the higher costs associated with the relocation of production, as well as higher component costs because of flooding impacts among component makers,” Zhang said. “Furthermore, PC brands have signed annual contacts with HDD makers that have locked them into elevated pricing deals for the rest of the year.”
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The prices remain high, because the manufacturers want them to .
Need to gain funding to retool factories to make SSD 's ..this, is the swansong of the spinner.
Keep prices up, because in time, there will always be a declining number of those that want them (spinners) .
Meanwhile, expect SSD prices to gently decline. Its all about a shift from one technology to another.
The prices remain high, because the manufacturers want them to .Need to gain funding to retool factories to make SSD 's ..this, is the swansong of the spinner. Keep prices up, because in time, there will always be a declining number of those that want them (spinners) . Meanwhile, expect SSD prices to gently decline. Its all about a shift from one technology to another.
I don't think HDD will die just yet, I had my computer for one month and an SSD equally priced the Hard drive I bought will be full by now. SSDs aren't going to become the dominant form of storage by being significantly faster, that's for sure. Until SSD can provide at least half the storage for the same price I'll still be using HDDs.
I recently tried to buy an external drive from amazon (WD Elements 3TB) and was told that because I have purchased too many of the same model in the last X months that I couldn't place an order and so I had to buy a 2TB model instead.
Was this a means for them to control flow of stock or to stop reselling via ebay etc. in the event that demand outstrips supply?
You could see the issue of flooding as a cause which realistically could be written off (surely they have business insurance etc.?) and so the only real issue to restart production would be supply of raw materials which can't really have been affected by floods as they are just that, raw, and as yet are simply plastics, metals and a few refined components which you would expect to not have been stored in a vulnerable location in any case.
I personally think that manufacturers are holding back stocks to artificially increase the cost of their products as many tech firms have been accused and even found guilty of doing just that in recent years.
Until SSD can provide at least half the storage for the same price I'll still be using HDDs. http://www.bosin.info/g.gif
Please don't copy and paste, it makes kittens cry.