Source: Tom's Hardware – Keywords: Microsoft, Windows, Vista Category : Miscellaneous
Analyst Opinion - Microsoft just released videos of the "Mojave Experiment", which basically was a survey session aiming to convince a bunch of folks that Windows Vista is not as bad as they may have heard: People with a negative opinion about the software were shown what they thought was the next generation of Windows code-named Mojave. They loved this product and raved about it, only to find they were actually shown Vista.
This very specific example reminded me of just how good a job Apple and specifically Steve Jobs do with regard to managing perceptions. The current example is the new 3G iPhone, which has a number of serious problems, but people are still lining up to buy. Regardless of how obvious the problems seem to some of us, clearly they are not important to the buyers even though phone battery life, radio performance, and service reliability (where the problems exist) would typically keep a phone from selling well.
But a better example may be how Steve Jobs recently created the perception that he is healthy using a reporter who typically is critical of the company.
It’s all about perception
Back when I was doing my marketing study work in graduate school, we had an exercise that taught a key lesson. You may recall it as the taste test and advertisers would use it regularly to showcase that people preferred Pepsi over Coke or one beer over another. So each class, mine being no exception, would do a similar taste test and you quickly concluded that people had no clue what it was they were drinking.
What was also funny was the number of people who had firm opinions that Pepsi or Coke was better ended up choosing the other product. This just points to the fact that people can have firm opinions about even basic subjects that are based on perceptions that are not consistent with reality.
The educated marketer knows this as a fact and the term I use to describe this is that "perception is 100% of reality", meaning that it generally doesn’t matter what actually is true. It only matters what you and I believe is true. To an experienced marketer like Steve Jobs, this means that he can manipulate our reality and get us to like things we otherwise might not. To the experienced buyer it means we can be manipulated and we often need to pause and assure we are grounded in reality before making a purchase. Any of us, and I include myself (ask my wife about the motorcycle I once bought), can be fooled.
Steve Jobs: Watching a master at work
Recently Steve Jobs had a problem in that Apple’s stock price was dropping largely on concerns about his health. He was between a rock and a hard place: If he is sick and admits it, the stock craters and, regardless of his health, if he claims he isn’t sick some won’t believe him and his health will be a constant uncomfortable topic going forward.
So he used his skills to address the problem. If you read this piece by Joe Nocera of the New York Times, you can actually see Steve’s brain work. (By the way an excellent book on understanding how Steve thinks is Inside Steve’s Brain).
Rather than calling a loyal reporter like Walter Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal he calls Joe Nocera who has historically been more critical (and thus more credible). Steve Jobs starts by calling Joe some nasty names to make sure there is no basis for loyalty and then asks for that loyalty before disclosing the secret of his health. Joe agrees to hold this information confidential but clearly is not in the mood, thanks to Jobs comments, to follow the letter of that promise. As a result, he credibly certifies that Jobs is healthy while thinking he is actually being critical of the process, which is exactly what Jobs wants him to do. Even if there is an SEC exposure because of insider information (Steve’s health is material to Apple), since Joe breached the confidentiality agreement, Steve may be safe - especially if he denies giving Joe the information that has been reported.
Steve created the impression, very credibly, that he is not critically ill without any connection to any truly credible source and the reporter fills that credibility gap personally. If it isn’t true, Steve just says what he said was in confidence and Joe misunderstood him or says that Joe made it up and, in both cases, it is Joe’s word against Steve’s. And why would Steve share personal and private information with a reporter he doesn’t like rather than one like Mossberg whom he does like? Who would you believe if the two disagreed? The guy known for incredible secrecy or the reporter trying to sell papers?
Brilliantly done. Let’s move to the Vista example.
Windows Vista: Turd or gem?
For some time, a number of us who have been using Windows Vista with great success have been listening to others slam the new OS largely for things that were corrected earlier this year. A combination of a lack of benefits-oriented marketing by Microsoft, one of the most disparaging campaigns I’ve ever seen in my life from Apple, and what had been a nasty first year had folks who had never actually seen or touched the product believe that it was, well, crap.
So the folks at Microsoft had a theory they decided to test, similar to the Coke/Pepsi challenge I mentioned above. The strategy was to expose people with a negative opinion of Vista, but who actually never had seen Vista, to Windows Vista’s best features. So they pulled a decent number of them into a focus group setting and showed them Vista, but told them they were actually seeing a product code-named Mojave. At the start they asked folks what they thought of Vista and most seemed to agreed with one woman who gave it a "zero". They were then shown the wonders of a new OS code named Mojave. At the end, after they had been told that what they actually had seen was Vista, most seemed to agree with that same woman who now gave the product a 10. If you’ve never seen a focus group, the videos are kind of interesting to watch.
True, the focus group setting was skewed to showcase what Vista does best. But it was the same product people never would have considered to buy before the test. The only thing that had changed was the perceptions of the people talking about it. Kind of makes you wonder what would happen if Microsoft really marketed Vista, doesn’t it?
Wrapping up: Know your reality
The lesson here isn’t really about Jobs’ health or Windows Vista. It is that our perceptions are often manipulated to our own detriment. Whether it is marketing folks who want to get us to buy what we don’t need (or get us to dislike a product we might otherwise like), or politicians who want us to vote in ways that aren’t in our best interest, we are constantly being manipulated. Knowing that allows us to look for the smoke and mirrors and perhaps be tricked less often. To be tricked less often is my annual, and recurring, personal goal.
Rob Enderle is one of the last Inquiry Analysts. Inquiry Analysts are paid to stay up to date on current events and identify trends and either explain the trends or make suggestions, tactical and strategic, on how to best take advantage of them. Currently he provides his services to most of the major technology and media companies.
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I lost faith in Human intelligence ages ago.... and I'm pretty young
the problem with marketing is that it has to be done right, i for one when i look at apple run a mile because of their marketing. the opposite is true with vista, i have heard so many people rant and rave about how bad it is and yet also heard others who say it is fine. for some reason, i lean to the fact that the people who rant and rave are clueless individuals who prefer to blame MS for their faults and would prefer to try it myself when the need arises.
the more popular something is, the less i will like it. still being manipulated, but hopefully in a better way.
vista pwns n now they know it
I'm probably a sucker for punishment given how people have jumped on my negative Vista comments on other articles, but nothing will change my opinion that Vista is a waste of time because that opinion is based on actually using it on multiple machines directly alongside XP (and OSX Tiger but that's irrelevant).
Yes, I'm glad that Microsoft changed the opinions of naysayers who'd never actually used Vista, but for those of us who have actually used it and still don't like it all this means nothing.
Roll on Vienna.
LePhuronn, its ok to change. Take me for example: I hated the iPod back then cause I used the 1st generation ones and also the Shuffle. Hated both. Tried others from Creative and liked them better. Then I tried Apple's newer and improved iPods and I fell in love with them.
Just because you have had bad experience with a product in the past doesn't mean it'll stay bad in the future.
Its ok to change. Change is good. Hard to change but still good.
I entirely agree Changeisgood. I never liked the look of the iPod until I was bought a 5th gen for a Christmas gift from work and since then I can't live without it. And even though I don't see the point in the iPhone, if the 3rd gen is sensibly priced and not exclusive to O2 I'll probably get one (if I don't replace my iPod with a 64GB Touch that is).
The same is probably true of Vista. Right now I have no need for what little it offers over XP. That being said, when I build my new motherbeast around New Year I'll be getting 64-bit Ultimate just so I know I have everything if I need it. I'm planning on having some stupid graphics cards in there so I'll probably benefit from DX10 by then too.
The whole reason I'm so reluctant to go to Vista, and I'm not unique in this, is that even if my bad experience was isolated there's no significant advantage for me to go Vista over XP (DX10 gaming is the exception but we need decent DX10 games now) and even Microsoft give the impression that it's an interim product - Vienna as a complete product was taking too long so they took what was already working and called it Vista. If Bill's saying Vienna could be available as early as next year (i.e. a year early) then why pay out twice?
ok i agree vista is good as of NOW , but when it was first released it was plagued with the same issues xp was , they failed to inform developers or supply enough info so half the stuff didnt work , also it was plagued with bugs. since SP1 ive used it as my main o/s but before i was on xp. with my E8400 , 4gig ram and my new 4870 ati i couldnt possibly use anything but vista 64bit , but a year ago it was a differnet story. microsoft always seem to get an o/s working really well then release a new bugged one!!. clever marketing ploy or rushed release? who knows.
"They showed them". Selectively displaying superficial features (aero) no doubt. I'm pretty sure if you put ubuntu + compiz (rotating cube etc) in juxtaposition with vista's aero they would be far less impressed.
How about a real test. For instance, one machine with XP, and another with vista. Then let them play for 30 mins each. And see what they think then. The test they did here was evidently prejudiced in vista's favor.
Does this mojave expirment also show how easy desktop linux distributions are? IE: Ubuntu and SuSE 11.
Yeah, thought not. "Linux is so scary!"
I tried Vista twice in beta and once right at release for 3 weeks. I promptly started learning Linux right as it started harassing me to register.
It wasn't the bugs that pushed me, it was core aspects to it. Such as the Aero interface being inefficient and drastically reducing performance in games. The regression in UI functionality, things like how damned hard it is to change any network settings.
There are improvements in Vista, like the stability testing, and performance metrics. But I can already deduce this in XP.
Another reason I am far in more favor of the GNU/Linux environment is that I can do whatever the hell I want and I dont ever have to worry about breaking the law. I can install as many distros on as many computers, and share with my friends. Yes, this is a common saying, but it's true. I have quite a few computers. Having to pay for windows for each of them would be ridiculous.
Posted from a true FREE OS.
The main problem with Vista is crystal clear. Microsoft builded and marketed a product which supposed to be better then the previous and the rest. They lied. It was not better then XP or OSX(slow, blue screens, etc). MS let us down. People are just disapointed and people don't forget that.
I do not want to bash MS because I think a lot of people that work there are good people and geniuses.
I hope they regain our trust with superiour and state of the art software.
It's not the perception of Vista that is poor, it's Vista itself.
The focus group was a waste of time because anyone with a brain can realise they where given easy tasks which the computers where set up to do without giving the usual Vista rubbish, all I need to say is:
"Windows needs your permission to continue" "We recommend you run this application as an administrator"
Come on people how many times have you stood up and screamed at the PC... "I am the F'in administrator"
I love this site and swear by it but come on.....
I've tried Vista a few times in the hopes of being able to use it as my main OS. It still offers no benefit to me as a home user over XP64bit. DX10 is ok but not enough of a change to warrant the slow responses and more complicated user experiance. Also Vista uses double the resources of XP to get off the ground and I'd rather have those resources available for my apps.
On the work side we havn't switched from XP because it offers zero benefit to someone sitting at a desk doing day-to-day work. XP is easier to implement and easier to support.
I'd love to switch to Vista and have it be the best thing since sliced bread but it's not. Microsoft need to simplify the user experiance and improve it's use of resources and it's performance and then I'm there.
I think they're missing the point here. The issue is not the perception of how bad people think Vista is. It may be a very good product in and of itself. The issue is whether or not Vista has made a significant enough improvement over XP to make people want to upgrade to it.
How come noone ever remembers that these are exactly the same comments that were made when XP was released? How difficult it was to change how all the administrative tasks were because 95/98 was what was known? Vista is a reasonably good OS that does what it's supposed to do without breaking the mould, so what... I am sure in 5 years time, when the next MS OS is released, everyone will complain how different and difficult to use it is... compared to Vista!